Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Belgium unemployment rate, August 2026
What will Eurostat first publish for Belgium's monthly seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in dataset une_rt_m, freq=M, s_adj=SA, age=TOTAL, sex=T, unit=PC_ACT, geo=BE, for August 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI6.3%
6.1%6.3%6.5%
history:Eurostat une_rt_m BE total SA unemployment, 2026-02: 6.3%Eurostat une_rt_m BE total SA unemployment, 2026-03: 6.2%Eurostat une_rt_m BE total SA unemployment, 2026-04: 6.2%Eurostat une_rt_m BE total SA unemployment, 2026-05: 6.3%Eurostat une_rt_m BE total SA unemployment, 2026-06: 6.3%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-13T07:14:07Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 13, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_08.first_print
Key drivers
- June 2026 last print at 6.3%
- Persistence beats mean-change drift in walk-forward checks
- Two unreleased monthly steps to August
- Recent monthly-change sigma is 0.083 pp
- No direct public signal justifies moving from persistence
Resolution
- source
- Eurostat monthly unemployment euro-indicators release / une_rt_m data page
- expected
- October 5, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first Eurostat print in table une_rt_m for geo=BE, s_adj=SA, sex=T, age=TOTAL, unit=PC_ACT, time=2026-08, reported in percent to one decimal. Use the first official value published for that monthly observation; do not substitute later revisions. The registered ledger target expected release window ends 2026-10-05; the official Eurostat calendar event fetched during drafting lists Unemployment, period August 2026, on 2026-10-01T11:00Z.
- Data point
- eurostat.une_rt_m.unemployment_rate.belgium.2026_08.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: shell.pythonhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.