Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
EITC claimant returns, TY2027
How many individual income tax returns will claim the Earned Income Tax Credit for tax year 2027?
current forecast · 80% CI23.4M
21.6M23.4M25.5M
history:TY2019: 25MTY2021: 27.5MTY2023e: 23MTY2025e: 23.2M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- irs.soi.eitc_claimant_returns.ty2027
Key drivers
- Low-wage employment
- EITC parameter indexation
- Filing and take-up rates
- Dependent-child claiming patterns
Resolution
- source
- IRS Statistics of Income individual tax return data
- expected
- December 31, 2029
- rule
- Resolves to the number of TY2027 individual income tax returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit, in millions, using the first official IRS Statistics of Income table covering TY2027 individual returns.
- Data point
- irs.soi.eitc_claimant_returns.ty2027
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
illustrative traceThis trace was authored from source context when the cell was created; the tool calls shown were not executed. Runs from June 28, 2026 onward replay archived activity from the public records.
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▸ illustrative step: irs.lookupauthored, not executed
▸ illustrative step: policyengine.simulateauthored, not executed
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.