ConditionalOutcome forecast conditional on a policy state.
DoD FY2027 prime award obligations if FY2027 NDAA enacted
What will USAspending API v2 report for Department of Defense agency 097 prime award obligations for fiscal year 2027, in billions USD, using the registered query snapshot field obligations from the FIRST PRINT resolving snapshot?
conditional on: An Act authorizing appropriations for military activities of the Department of Defense for fiscal year 2027 (the FY2027 NDAA; the House-reported bill is H.R. 8800, 119th Congress, House Report 119-698) is enacted into law on or before 2026-12-31.
current forecast · 80% CI545.3
495.4545.3595.2
history:USAspending agency 097 obligations FY2016, billions USD: 304.7USAspending agency 097 obligations FY2017, billions USD: 328USAspending agency 097 obligations FY2018, billions USD: 365.9USAspending agency 097 obligations FY2019, billions USD: 391.3USAspending agency 097 obligations FY2020, billions USD: 431.9USAspending agency 097 obligations FY2021, billions USD: 395.3USAspending agency 097 obligations FY2022, billions USD: 424.5USAspending agency 097 obligations FY2023, billions USD: 467.3USAspending agency 097 obligations FY2024, billions USD: 456.9USAspending agency 097 obligations FY2025, billions USD: 501.5
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-13T20:20:55Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 13, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- usaspending.dod.prime_award_obligations.2027.registered_query_snapshot.fy27_ndaa_enacted
Key drivers
- completed FY2016-FY2025 upward trend
- FY2025 registered-query high print
- timely NDAA condition supports normal award cycle
- FY2026 still incomplete at run date
- large annual obligation volatility
Resolution
- source
- USAspending API v2, agency 097 awards
- expected
- October 22, 2027
- rule
- If the condition is satisfied, resolve from the first successful registered-query snapshot captured under the target process for USAspending API v2 agency 097 awards with fiscal_year=2027 at https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/agency/097/awards/?fiscal_year=2027, with resolutionDate fixed at the ledger deadline 2027-10-22. Read JSON field obligations, multiply by 1e-9, and resolve as Department of Defense prime award obligations for fiscal year 2027 in billions USD under registered_query_snapshot releasePolicy. Later corrections or changes are irrelevant. Round to the nearest 0.1 billion USD. If the condition is not satisfied, mark the cell unresolved.
- Data point
- usaspending.dod.prime_award_obligations.2027.registered_query_snapshot.fy27_ndaa_enacted
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: shell.curlhidden
▸ recorded source check: shell.curlhidden
▸ recorded source check: shell.curlhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.