Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US Nonfarm Payrolls, August 2026
What will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the first-print seasonally adjusted month-over-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August 2026, in thousands?
current forecast · 80% CI35k
-92k35k162k
history:July 2026 first print: -23kJune 2026 latest revised: 20kMay 2026 latest revised: 63kMay 2026 first print: 172kApril 2026 revised in May release: 179k
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-11T12:59:29Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 11, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- bls.ces.total_nonfarm.payroll_employment.change.sa.2026-08.first_print
Key drivers
- July first print was negative at -23k, pointing to weak near-term momentum
- BLS reported only 34k average monthly payroll gains over the prior 12 months
- Private payrolls were still positive in July at +30k while public education was the main drag
- Recent large downward revisions argue for a lower center than the 2024-2026 current-vintage mean
- Low layoff/high health-care hiring pattern keeps the modal forecast above zero
Resolution
- source
- Official agency release
- expected
- September 4, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first official BLS Employment Situation print for August 2026, Table B-1 total nonfarm seasonally adjusted change from July 2026 to August 2026, in thousands. Use the initially published preliminary value and do not apply later revisions, benchmark updates, same-day corrections, or subsequent monthly releases.
- Data point
- bls.ces.total_nonfarm.payroll_employment.change.sa.2026-08.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.