Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
SBA Disaster Charge-Off Rate FY2026
What will the SBA first print for FY2026 Disaster / Disaster charge-off rates as a percent of unpaid principal balance in Table 9 of Small Business Administration Loan Program Performance?
current forecast · 80% CI1.6%
0.72%1.6%3.25%
history:FY2025 Q3 official vintage through 2025-06-30: 0.9%2024 full-year: 3.06%2023 full-year: 3.44%2022 full-year: 1.97%2016-2024 median: 1.46%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 · 2026-08-08T10:35:56Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 8, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst.ladder_v2
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- sba.disaster.loan_program.charge_off_rate_upb.2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Current official FY2025 Q3 Disaster / Disaster charge-off rate is only 0.90 percent
- Recent full-year charge-off rates were elevated in FY2022-FY2024
- Disaster UPB rose to 11.98 billion dollars by June 30 2025, diluting a fixed charge-off dollar flow
- COVID EIDL is a separate row and is not included in the resolver field
Resolution
- source
- Official SBA Loan Program Performance Table 9
- expected
- December 31, 2028
- rule
- Resolve to the first official SBA Loan Program Performance print for FY2026, Table 9 - Charge Off Rates as a Percent of Unpaid Principal Balance (UPB) Amount by Program, field Disaster / Disaster. Use the percentage as printed by SBA, currently to 0.01 percentage point precision; do not use later revisions or same-day corrections unless they are the first official print itself.
- Data point
- sba.disaster.loan_program.charge_off_rate_upb.2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: public.contexthidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.