Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
SBA disaster post-charge-off recoveries FY2026
What will SBA first print as FY2026 post-charge-off recovery amount for the Disaster / Disaster program in Table 7, dollars, under the Small Business Administration Loan Program Performance release?
current forecast · 80% CI$103,333,333
$63,333,333$103,333,333$150,000,000
history:FY2023 Disaster / Disaster post-charge-off recovery amount: $96,563,005FY2024 Disaster / Disaster post-charge-off recovery amount: $126,510,000FY2025 Q3 Disaster / Disaster post-charge-off recovery amount as of 2025-06-30: $85,429,990FY2025 Q3 Disaster / Disaster charge-off amount as of 2025-06-30: $107,714,599FY2025 Q3 Disaster / Disaster UPB as of 2025-06-30: $11,976,493,088
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst.ladder_v2 · 2026-08-08T10:38:51Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 8, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst.ladder_v2
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- sba.disaster.loan_program.post_charge_off_recovery.2026.first_print
Key drivers
- FY2025 Q3 recoveries already reached $85.43 million, implying a full-year run rate near $114 million if receipts continue proportionally
- FY2023 and FY2024 recoveries of $96.56 million and $126.51 million show the current old-methodology base rate is elevated versus 2016-2022
- FY2025 Q3 charge-offs of $107.71 million are lower than FY2023-FY2024 but still support a substantial recovery pipeline
- FY2025 Q3 UPB of $11.98 billion leaves a large recoverable disaster-loan stock
- No revised-methodology official print was available, so current official series history is the admissible base rate
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Small Business Administration Loan Program Performance, Table 7 - Post-Charge Off Recovery Amount by Program
- expected
- December 31, 2028
- rule
- Resolve to the first official SBA print for fiscal year 2026 in Table 7 - Post-Charge Off Recovery Amount by Program, row Disaster under the Disaster section, column 2026, in dollars. Use the first printed value only; later data updates or revisions do not change resolution. If the first print is formatted with dollar signs and commas, remove formatting and keep whole-dollar precision.
- Data point
- sba.disaster.loan_program.post_charge_off_recovery.2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: thesis_announcement_fetch.fetch_official_announcementhidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
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This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.