Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
DHS Title VI FY2026 award obligations
What will USAspending API v2 first report for FY2026 DHS Title VI award transaction obligations, filtered to the registered Treasury accounts and all registered prime award type codes, grouped by fiscal year?
current forecast · 80% CI$24,800,000,000
$18,160,000,000$24,800,000,000$31,440,000,000
history:CBP OBBA obligations through Dec 2025, reference class: $11,300,000,000CBP OBBA budget authority, Sep 2025: $64,800,000,000DHS State Border Security Reinforcement Fund appropriation: $10,000,000,000FEMA state and local assistance appropriation: $2,580,000,000FLETC appropriation: $750,000,000
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-07T19:32:23Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 7, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- usaspending.dhs.title_vi.award_transaction_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Key drivers
- Large multiyear CBP procurement and construction balances available for FY2026 awards
- State Border Security Reinforcement Fund can add lumpy state reimbursement obligations
- FEMA-administered assistance likely contributes grant obligations but below the CBP construction component
- First-print USAspending timing may miss some late-September agency submissions or corrections
Resolution
- source
- USAspending API v2 advanced search spending over time
- expected
- October 22, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first official USAspending API v2 /api/v2/search/spending_over_time/ response available on 2026-10-22 for fiscal_year=2026, spending_level=transactions, group=fiscal_year, the registered award_type_codes, and the registered DHS Treasury account components. Use results[time_period.fiscal_year=2026].aggregated_amount in dollars exactly as returned by the API; do not replace it with later corrected or revised USAspending values.
- Data point
- usaspending.dhs.title_vi.award_transaction_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
§
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: public.referencehidden
▸ recorded source check: public.referencehidden
▸ recorded source check: public.referencehidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.